Originally posted by Penguin
1: We don't know the size of the enemy fleet. The bugs could've been overstretching themselves to get at us for all we know.
Item: WCP final mission. Dekker detects fleet on the
other size of wormhole. Describes it as "BIG!".
Item: WCP:SO fan fiction describes fleet as being huge
also.
Item: Finley describes initial foray into Confed space as
"recon" only. Said recon probe included two Krakens and one Leviathan.
Item: Aliens continually taunt us about our numbers being
too few to stop them.
Item: The aliens possess at least three Tiamat type vessels
-- one destroyed in WCP, one damaged in WCP by closing
wormhole, one destroyed in WCP:SO. Not to mention something like 8 Leviathans. And even this wasn't their
whole fleet!
Item: During WCP, the Confederation destroys 1 Tiamat,
4 or so carriers, a like number of cruisers and destroyers,
2 Krakens, and countless fighters.
How long would it have taken Confed to recover from those
kind of losses? How long to build another wormhole? It
took the aliens less than a year, and their second attack
was just as strong as the first!
Off-hand, I'd say the aliens have an overwhelming resource
advantage. What specific sources and/or bits of data do
you see that leads you to believe otherwise?
2: As was previously mentioned the bugs had to build the wormholes on existing space phenomena - the anomaly in Kilrah, the binary star system in Proxima. It's also been stated that the wormholes required a great deal of planning to be constructed. Basically we have no evidence to support the idea that the bugs can open gates whereever and whenever they want.
I never said *whenever* and *wherever* they want. I DID
say "in areas that Confed cannot predict". How many useable
potential anomalies exist between our space and their space?
Maybe only the two, but the fiction suggested at least
three more. Currently, the only way we can find a wormhole is when it opens, disgorging an enemy task force.
Presumably, access to alien technology will help us to find the potential anomalies *before* they are open -- but how long will it take to find them all? How many can we guard?
Remember, we have to guard them all -- the Nephilem only
need one or two.
Also, about the planning -- yes, it will take time, but
the Nephilem have watched the Kilrathi for thousands
of years. Given that timescale, they can easily afford to take 50 or so years to build up an overwhelming force from
multiple directions. Confed will be using that 50 years
forgetting there's a threat and cutting military forces
to the bone.
3: Considering what happened to the Kilrathi fleet at the beginning of WCP, I don't think any Confed admiral is going to be dumb enough to go anywhere even remotely near a hostile Fleet Plasma bearing ship.
The carriers will have to take a stand if they wish to
defend a fixed point, such as Ella or Sol. When they
do, it's a simple matter sending conventional forces to
force the carriers to reveal themselves, then use the
Krakens to eliminate them.
Your future scenario doesn't hold up because if the bugs had that sort of capability why haven't they done that to us?
Because their initial forays were recon? Because they
didn't know enough about our interstellar geography,
strengths, weaknesses, defenses? They certainly know a lot
more now. Also because they didn't think we were that good,
a theory we have certainly disproved. If they try again,
they'll have to try with the whole inventory. These
reconaissance forays simply aren't good enough.
When things started to go sour and Confed forces started approaching the Kilrah wormhole why didn't they start pumping their supposed superior numbers through the gate?
They *tried* to, as demonstrated by the infinite fighter
waves and the Tiamat coming through the wormhole.
Fortunately for us, they weren't expecting resistance
and hadn't prepared overwhelming numbers to attack us.
When we approached the Kilrah gate, they attempted to
bring up those numbers, but they only got word when the Midway was in H'rissith, and they were just a little too late.
Darn.
Secondly after the loss of Kilrah, why did the bugs just open 1 gate in Proxima? Why didn't they hold off until they were ready to launch multiple offensives through multiple gates?
Because they thought that would be all it would take, and
didn't want to waste resources? Remember: that one offensive came *very* close to destroying the Confederation.
However, now that both offensives have been repulsed, they
will have to reconsider their strategy. They can't simply
send small forces -- they'll have to make a major effort.
Finally your accomodation proposal also doesn't hold up because if the bugs have all these resources then they don't have to reach an agreement with us.
Depends -- how willing are they to commit resources
to destroy us? If they HAVE the capability but don't
want to use if 'cause they need it elsewhere, we may
make the butcher's bill too high a price for them to pay.
Then they'd make terms. It's like the US in Somalia --
the Somalians couldn't *defeat* American military power,
but they didn't need to. They simply had to inflict enough
casualties for the Americans to decide that the benefit
gained from pacifying Somalia was not worth the price we'd
have to pay. So the Somalis killed less than a hundred Americans, and we left. Not because we were defeated, but because we weren't willing to pay the price. And that is how a fourth-world country whose heaviest weapon is a hand-held RPG can defeat the world's mightiest army.
Another example: In WWII Hitler chose not to invade
England. He *could* have done so if he was willing to spend
the time and effort to upgrade his air force and to build
enough landing craft, then beat the RAF into the ground.
But he gave up when tue RAF put up significant
resistance during the Battle Of Britain. He could have
pressed on, but called the whole thing off. Why? Because he needed those resources
to attack Russia. Thus, the British were able to hold off
the Germans not by defeating them militarily (I do not think
the Brits won a single major battle against German ground forces until 1943 or so) but by making the cost of invasion
high enough that Hitler wasn't willing to pay it.
Example 3: Operation Citadel, 1943. The Germans attack
a heavily fortified Russian area in the hopes of cutting
off an army or so. They never stop advancing, and beat their way through all resistance, but it is expensive and
costly in time and lives. Hitler eventually orders the
offensive terminated because, although successful in the
sense that it is gaining ground and has not been stopped,
it is too expensive for the value gained and those resources
are urgently needed to stop a new allied offensive in
Sicily.
Now try this. Following your reasoning Confed will be attacked by the bugs on multiple fronts. The same thing happened to the Romans. They had to fight wars on their frontiers all at once. Many emperors managed to win victories in each theater. One emperor, Heraclius, managed to defeat 3 Persian armies in 1 campaigning season. Another emperor, Aurelian, reunited the empire and defeated large hordes of barbarians all along the Danube. And don't forget the 2nd Punic War - even with Hannibal roaming Italy the Romans were still able to launch a counter-offensive at Spain.
The Romans won many battles against the barbarians because
they had the advantage of interior communication lines
and superior discipline. Confed has the interior comm
lines, but superior discipline (at least to the extent the
legionaries had over their opponents) has yet to be proven.
In addition, in many of the battles that you site, the
difference was due to excellent military leadership. I
have seen nothing to indicate that Confed military leadership is particularly brilliant, or that it is
smarter than the Nephilem. If they were, they wouldn't
need us heroes to pull their chestnuts out of the fire
.
Also, it's probably a bad idea to make a battle plan
assuming the enemy is stupider than you are.
The Romans were able to launch a counter-offensive while
Hannibal was in Italy because it had sufficient resources to
fight Hannibal AND attack Carthage. It has not been demonstrated that Confed has such an advantage over the
Nephilem.
I see a Nephilem war being more like the
war against the Red Steamroller in 1941-1945, where some
German tanks (the Mark V Panther, in particular) were able to rack up 9-1 kill ratios and
still lose. Hans Rudel, a fighter-bomber pilot, personally
accounted for something like 400 Soviet tanks and they
still lost the war because 1) the Russians had a *lot* of tanks 2) They knew how to use them operationally, if not
tactically, and 3)Although the Russians, as a rule, were
not as competent tactically as their German adversaries,
they were competent *enough* to make the numbers count.
Right. We can win a 30-40 odd year long war of attrition with the Kilrathi, but will be prostrated in a single year by the bugs. OK...
We won that war by a fluke. If not for the daring
bombing raid and the Kilrathi psychology that required
surrender if their hierarchy was destroyed, the final
Kilrathi offensive would certainly have destroyed Confed
and Earth.
Respectfully,
Brian P.
But we don't see anything unusual in the losing endgame -- no extra ships, that is to say...
. 
