Stay safe, wingnuts

[L.I.F.]

Masks aren't perfect, small as the chances are anyone working there meets hundreds of customers; hundreds of chances for the unlikely to happen, and then hundreds of chances to pass it onto someone else. Which is why they say don't go out AT ALL if you suspect you may be infected, and limit your interactions in lockdown as far as possible. Easy way to do that is not pop to the store every few days.

What? When did I ever say I suspected to be infected? Confinement procedures aren't for infected people, they're for everyone.

 

[Pedro]

What? When did I ever say I suspected to be infected? Confinement procedures aren't for infected people, they're for everyone.

I'm still responding to your list of advice to other people.
Anyone, even not in a location that has been locked down still should be self-isolating for a period of two weeks if they have any reason to suspect they could be infected (or have been exposed to someone else who is).
In order to this effectively you must assume you will get infected and have two weeks of supplies prepared because once you believe you are it’s already too late to go shopping.

I addressed both scenarios, and neither was directed at you personally.

 

[L.I.F.]

I'm still responding to your list of advice to other people.
Anyone, even not in a location that has been locked down still should be self-isolating for a period of two weeks if they have any reason to suspect they could be infected (or have been exposed to someone else who is).
In order to this effectively you must assume you will get infected and have two weeks of supplies prepared because once you believe you are it’s already too late to go shopping.

I addressed both scenarios, and neither was directed at you personally.

Oh, OK, didn't realize that, sorry.

 

[-danr-]

Not that I'm aware of. They're younger than me and seemed fine. A lot was made of elderly and people with other issues to begin with, and that may be where most of the deaths are, but it can hit younger people hard all the same. It's looking like in the US here that a third of more of serious hospitalization are people younger than 45.

That's terrifying. Prayers are with them.

 

[JasonRocZ]

I'm a big fan of keep calm and carry on. I have many friends who are doctors and nurses in NYC including an old persons home in the Bronx near the VA. I live in Albany NY which is roughly 150 miles north of NYC. I know a HIPA is in place for doctors and nurses for confidentiality, one thing they say is that they haven't seen one case, in fact haven't heard of one case in the circles they are in, that doesn't mean they aren't preparing for the worst but I believe that the media takes a story and turns it into a frenzy, then the government got involved and our governor as well as others have said that the information that they are getting on possible cases, confirmed cases, etc, Is not totally accurate. More people die of illnesses that we already know about and can/cannot treat. At this point I don't trust both the government nor the media. We're in some weird times people. Strange days and weird times. If I could sum up which character I'm conveying right now in the Wing Commander Universe, I'd say it would be "Zero" from Prophecy when he talks about the Nephilim, kind of a solemn mood as I'm not too sure where things are going.

 

[L.I.F.]

I'm a big fan of keep calm and carry on. I have many friends who are doctors and nurses in NYC including an old persons home in the Bronx near the VA. I live in Albany NY which is roughly 150 miles north of NYC. I know a HIPA is in place for doctors and nurses for confidentiality, one thing they say is that they haven't seen one case, in fact haven't heard of one case in the circles they are in, that doesn't mean they aren't preparing for the worst but I believe that the media takes a story and turns it into a frenzy, then the government got involved and our governor as well as others have said that the information that they are getting on possible cases, confirmed cases, etc, Is not totally accurate. More people die of illnesses that we already know about and can/cannot treat. At this point I don't trust both the government nor the media. We're in some weird times people. Strange days and weird times. If I could sum up which character I'm conveying right now in the Wing Commander Universe, I'd say it would be "Zero" from Prophecy when he talks about the Nephilim, kind of a solemn mood as I'm not too sure where things are going.

Exponential function is a b***h. From what numbers are available, you're a couple of weeks away from our situation. It doesn't mean getting insane with panic buys, but rather preparing as a society. One thing you can do that isn't hurting is to see in the neighbourhood how to organize people to see if there are elderly ones who would be more at risk of the virus and who could need grocery runs delivered at their door by neighbours, or if nurses, doctors, etc., have kids who would need to be looked after when schools are shut down and their parents are on the frontlines, that kind of thing.

Here, doctors are getting more and more overloaded trying to keep the fatalities as low as possible, sometimes at a high cost: three doctors died of Covid in the country since yesterday, and more will as we're calling back numerous recently retired ones who are old enough to be threatened seriously by the virus. The job for the rest of us is to make their job easier, so there are websites being set up to link healthcare personnel or elderly people with local volunteers, or automatic fast-lane in stores for anyone who can prove their healthcare personnel status. It's taken time to set up, but that's something you can help prepare on a local level. If the epidemic is overblown, it won't have hurt anyone, but if it isn't, then you can do your part to make the fight go smoother.

 

[Panther1.0]

I believe if the world were not made aware in time, like for example - say we only discovered today that this is a new/deadly spreading virus we would have the 1918 spanish flu pademic all over which killed millions across the world.

I feel really bad for those working their butts off to help others infected and getting sick in the process, it's absolutely terrible.

 

[L.I.F.]

I believe if the world were not made aware in time, like for example - say we only discovered today that this is a new/deadly spreading virus we would have the 1918 spanish flu pademic all over which killed millions across the world.

I feel really bad for those working their butts off to help others infected and getting sick in the process, it's absolutely terrible.

Most models I've heard about indicate that this WILL kill millions across the world. The Brits have calculated that even with strong confinement measures, the fatalities will be above a million in the US alone, a quarter to half a million in UK, etc. In Italy, they're getting close to one thousand dead per day and it's likely to increase.

The kicker is that it's pretty contagious and that critical cases - old, diabetic, asthmatic, immunodeficient people, etc. - need intensive care for several days, and that healthcare systems are on a trajectory leading to overwhelming the number of available respirators. In short, a good old Zergling rush at our hospitals all over the world. Cue the excess patients being unable to be saved, while other illnesses go untreated due to the beds being taken, so we're seeing right now in Italy triage being done and doctors forced to choose who will live and who will die, like in wartime. Thus the need for action by society, to increase the healthcare capability by having last year students and recent retirees being drafted for the hospital frontlines, while at the same time reducing as much as possible the number of people contaminated at once, through confinement procedures and isolation of the vulnerable populations.

This seems like it's going to be a pretty long battle, and the home front will be just as important now as it was back then.

Loading…

www.imperial.ac.uk

 

[Panther1.0]

now you are really scaring me, in 1918 the world population were around or less than 2 billion and that flu killed around 40 to 50 million, but yes I hope and pray it will not be millions.

 

[L.I.F.]

now you are really scaring me, in 1918 the world population were around or less than 2 billion and that flu killed around 40 to 50 million, but yes I hope and pray it will not be millions.

It's unlikely any vaccine will be found in time, and the fatality rate isn't high enough to justify a hail mary trying untested ones. Expectations are for twelve to twenty four months to a vaccine. Some drugs have decent potential mitigating the symptoms and are being tested as I type: if they reduce the number of people with symptoms or the time of effect for these symptoms, it will virtually multiply the number of beds, therefore reducing the total number of deaths. But even then, there are countries whose population will suffer harshly: poor ones with limited healthcare, or those that are unable to get access to enough medicine and equipment (such as Cuba and Iran, thanks to the sanctions, though I suppose China won't give a damn and will send equipment anyway if we don't).

The crux of the matter is that all of this will depend on our resilience and discipline as a society. Resilience, to keep the system working, those who can work at home and still create some wealth should do so, as well as to think about what we can do to help those in need, be they the vulnerable populations who would be endangered by doing their grocery runs or the frontline jobs (medical, delivery, truck drivers, cashiers, police, etc.) who cannot be there for their loved ones, but also discipline to prevent society from breaking down when it'll get harsh to stay inside for weeks at a time.

Kinda relevant:

Spoiler

They are helping us, we should help them.

 

[Panther1.0]

whats the story with China, suddenly they don't have any more cases, or now just a few like 20-40 new infections a day.

 

[Pedro]

whats the story with China, suddenly they don't have any more cases, or now just a few like 20-40 new infections a day.

They locked up their people and don't have people throwing coronavirus parties.
In China it doesn't matter if people have misplaced incredulity, they are scared of the repercussions and so stayed home. Many people in the west just aren't taking it seriously enough so you can't expect to see similar success stories.

It's worth saying the epidemic isn't overblown, the death rate might be as low as 1% under ideal circumstances, but as so many people require intensive care to have a positive outcome once the medical facilities get overloaded (which can happen overnight with exponential increases) that number rockets up.

 

[Star Rider]

Last I had heard in my State of Michigan, we have 43 dead and nearly 2300 confirmed cases . Considering at the beginning of last week we were at 3 deaths and 300 range in cases that is quite a jump.

Two of the Big Hospitals in Metro Detroit, Beaumount, and Henry Ford are nearing capacity with patients.

 

[ChrisReid]

Last I had heard in my State of Michigan, we have 43 dead and nearly 2300 confirmed cases . Considering at the beginning of last week we were at 3 deaths and 300 range in cases that is quite a jump.

Two of the Big Hospitals in Metro Detroit, Beaumount, and Henry Ford are nearing capacity with patients.

Nationally we've gone from 7,000 cases to 68,000 case in just one week and accelerating. We'll have the most cases total by this weekend, and probably the most cases per capita by next weekend. Many states locked down in the past week, but we won't start to see the benefit of that for another week after the incubation period of the virus. It's going to be rough. Any existing hospital bed will become an intensive care unit. Everyone else will be in field hospitals outside in tents. Now's the time to hunker down and not go out unless you absolutely need to.

 

[L.I.F.]

Nationally we've gone from 7,000 cases to 68,000 case in just one week and accelerating. We'll have the most cases total by this weekend, and probably the most cases per capita by next weekend. Many states locked down in the past week, but we won't start to see the benefit of that for another week after the incubation period of the virus. It's going to be rough. Any existing hospital bed will become an intensive care unit. Everyone else will be in field hospitals outside in tents. Now's the time to hunker down and not go out unless you absolutely need to.

The important element is whether the lockdown will be followed. We had quite the troubles doing so in the first days, and enforcing it requires increasingly higher fines as a deterrent.

 

[capi3101]

Lockdown here begins today and goes for the next 15 days. Groceries, exercise, medicine and that's about it. Fine right now is $700.

Went to PTCs at my kids' school on Friday the 13th; found out a few days later that one of the parents in my elder son's class who had a PTC the night before tested positive. Had a little bit of a cough last night; hoping to hell that's a coincidence. Timeframe is about right though.

(PTC ≠ Phase Transit Cannon. PTC = Parent-teacher conference. With this particular group, that makes a little bit of a difference...).

 

[ChrisReid]

Phase Transit Cannon was definitely what came to mind first. Hope you're virus free!

 

[cff]

3rd week for lockdown around here and it will be at least that many weeks to go. Have to start getting creative to find some off-work activites. Home Office Sounds cool, but if you only see the same walls it starts to suck after a while.

 

[Panther1.0]

I'm listening to Wing Commander soundtracks, both WC3 and 4 intro's are excellent. some cool remakes on SoundCloud.

cheers.

 

[LeHah]

I'm actually at work! Our governor keeps dancing around a mandatory shutdown - its only *advised* - despite us being the fourth worst state per capita or something. If I get sick, be sure I'm putting that guy's name on blast.