North Korea

-danr-

Vice Admiral
Hope this subject isn't too contraversial for the CIC boards, but since we seem to have a lot of historians in here, I wanted to know how you guys felt about the escalating tensions with P'yong'yang that seem to be all over the news today.

Personally I think it's time for more dialogue, at least let try to talk a while longer before considering anything heavier. Despite the nuclear test and rocket trials, I'm not sure that N. Korea could really strike Seoul with an atomic weapon just yet.
 
I'm a nuclear physicist - so I'm not sure about the capabilities in terms of rocket strikes, though North Korea has done tests in the past I believe. I can't say I'm terribly worried, the weapons seem to be of the 10Kton range so similar to that used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, now that doesnt mean that the weapon is inneffective - far from it! but it is orders of magnitude below the weapons that most of the nuclear powers would consider to be a basic one.

The real risk here is that North Korea is silly enough to use it on South Korea (not impossible) and that they use it as a dirty bomb - so using the nuclear elements to irradiate the city rather than simply destroy it.

That said, North Korea has concluded more successful tests than the US did prior to the attack on Japan - and they have far more advanced missiles and planes than the US did at the time.
 
Personally I think it's time for more dialogue, at least let try to talk a while longer before considering anything heavier.

This is great idea. It worked so successfully before in North Korea (the talks got them to completely stop making nuclear material and never make it again!) and Iran (They to have renounced all nuclear material and throw their equipment into the sea!).

History has proven the only way to stop the development of nuclear weapons is with MILITARY FORCE. It's just shameful we don't have a President intelligent enough to realize this and do something about it.
 
If N. Korea want's nukes so badly someone should give them some... delivered via air mail

edit: Hehe Promotion time
 
I don't think more dialogue will work any better than it has in previous attempts. I'd make sure that our allies in the region had the latest missile defense systems such as our most advanced Standard and Patriot missiles and radars and if they don't offer that technology to them. Japan has some of these but I am not sure if South Korea does. Then give South Korea the go ahead to strike North Korean nuclear facilities and knock them out if they feel threatened enough.
 
The reason I advocate dialogue now is that (as a Brit) I feel that our combined forces are stretched enough in Afghanistan and in your case Iraq to start sabre rattling with a million man army. I'm not saying we should back down, let's just let the North make the first move of battlefield aggression before piling in.
 
Personally I think it's time for more dialogue, at least let try to talk a while longer before considering anything heavier.
Wow, I remember when I used to say things like that. Boy, I'm glad I grew out of that phase - and I hope you will too :).

I think, though, that in all this noise, people tend to forget the most important questions - what is North Korea, where is North Korea, and why should we care?

The answers are: it's a bankrupt state incapable of feeding its own population without foreign aid, it's in the furthest middle of nowhere (from our perspective), and the only reason to care is that its people really could use a break.

If North Korea were a person instead of a country, it would be a half-conscious hobo connected to feeding tubes, and threatening to kill you if you dare to disconnect those tubes. That's how serious their threats are.

Every time North Korea takes another step in their nuclear programme, they promise to stop... in exchange for extra aid. When they receive this aid, and it turns out the country is still collapsing, they quietly resume the nuclear programme and demand more aid. Their threats are laughable. What are they going to do, nuke South Korea? That's where most of their aid comes from - and we're not talking luxuries, we're talking basic food supplies. Even if there were no military reprisals, that would be the end of all that aid they were begging for. It wouldn't take more than a decade for the country to collapse entirely - and probably closer to a year.

Do you know why South Korea is always so gentle and willing to negotiate with North Korea? If you examine South Korea's policies regarding North Korea, you'll notice a sudden change around 1990. That's when South Korea got really scared... of East Germany. They saw how difficult it was for West Germany to restore any kind of normalcy in East Germany, and that country was in a far better shape than North Korea. Right now, South Korea's main objective is to prop up North Korea for as long as possible, because if the country were to collapse, reunification would be inevitable, and South Korea would be flooded with refugees. Refugees, incidentally, are the only "million men army" that North Korea would be able to mobilise - about all that North Korea's army can do is throw a fancy parade every once in a while. This is, obviously, mere guesswork on my part - but hey, I know what our Polish armed forces looked like before the fall of the Berlin Wall. And I do remember the time when Soviet soldiers stationed in Poland were selling their Kalashnikovs at local marketplaces. So, given that North Korea's situation is infinitely worse than ours was back then, I would say it's safe to laugh off North Korea's army as a paper tiger. Half of them would probably surrender immediately after crossing the demilitarised zone.


None of this actually tells us what should be done about North Korea. Really, I don't know. What I do know is that if our governments decide to act because they're concerned about North Korea's nuclear weapons, it's virtually certain they'll make the wrong decision (...because it's hard to make the right decision based on stupidly absurd situational analysis). But then again, I'm cynical enough to think that this isn't at all about North Korea. There's this whole economic crisis thing going on right now, and it's always nice to distract the voters from your government's total incompetence by knocking down a few straw men...
 
I believe Quarto is right as far as the threat is concerned.

However, a dirty bomb is something, very, very nasty, and if they are desperate enough, it could turn up anywhere, even in your city centre. You do not need missiles to bring them there, a few creative desperate persons will do.

On another part of quarto's reply, he made notice of; it's a bankrupt state incapable of feeding its own population without foreign aid. After the first world war germany was put in that position as well, and they did more then just build a military parade.

Desperate people always can be tempted to blame a common enemy for their problems, especially when you promise them a better life then what they have now.

I'd consider Iran a much more serious threat then north korea, north korea has nothing to gain from making enemies, and who is the rest of the world to disallow them a weapons program other nations have too, you might call them too primitive/crazy in their culture and ideas to use them, but who ever is not? Both a caveman and a academic can push a big red button.
 
The reason I advocate dialogue now is that (as a Brit) I feel that our combined forces are stretched enough in Afghanistan and in your case Iraq to start sabre rattling with a million man army. I'm not saying we should back down, let's just let the North make the first move of battlefield aggression before piling in.

This argument completely flies in the face of the Israeli raid on the Iraq Nuclear Reactor. Either that raid worked, Iraq was shut down, and stopped producing weapons of mass Destructions, or about 2 billion people owe Georgey W an apology.

The less that should be learned from this is that a concise strike (Technoglically superior aircraft) against a specific Target (North Korean Nuclear Enrichment Plant) can be succesful at stopping the development of Nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Where as diplomatic efforts to reduce the military strength of an opposing falling apart quasi-terrorist communist extremist state are 0 for 468174968713498617439687164 tries.

And that does require pulling any forces off the line to engage in battle. In fact, the entire operation could not be conducted by Hellfire Missiles fired from Drones and Tomahawk Strike Missiles, not require a man to do anymore then push a couple of buttons.

No, the reason you want dialog is because you're ignorant of Human History, which has demonstrated time and time again that diplomatic arrangements have unilaterally failed to accomplish the stated objective of military disarmament. The only case was there is an exception to these rules is with the START Treaty's and talks, and the only reason THOSE are successful is because they've changed...exactly nothing. When you have enough power to blow the world away one or two million times over, what does it matter if you want to get rid of a few out dated launch systems that are just eating up your cash reserves to maintain anyway?

The only time Diplomacy has won military concessions has been when both sides have nothing to lose.

Either because the amount of reduce able weapons was insignificant (START Treatys) or they intended to simply start back up again (Treaty of Versailles, North Korean Agreement).

In this case, we have, as pointed out by Quarto, a communist state that is completely dependent on foreign nations to feed it's people, with an overpopulation problem, a failing government, a simmering pot of citizens that hate the government, and now, Nuclear Weapons.

If this is NOT the time for Military Action, then we might as well disband the US Army right now.
 
This argument completely flies in the face of the Israeli raid on the Iraq Nuclear Reactor. Either that raid worked, Iraq was shut down, and stopped producing weapons of mass Destructions, or about 2 billion people owe Georgey W an apology.

So what you're suggesting is that we drop bombs on a facility whose aim is to produce enriched nuclear fuel, and does so by filtering by mass a highly toxic isotope of uranium - that there is a genuinely excellent plan to create a horrific disaster.

Taking out an enrichment facility isnt as simple as destroying the turbines on a nuclear power plant - it's more like blowing the reactor core all over the country.

Simply put, smash tactics will not work against those facilities, they need to be secured by special forces and dismantled - carefully!

I don't mean to suggest that we should not assault North Korea if they continue, but frankly, they are, as Quarto pointed out, just a small child whinging when they don't get their way. Diplomacy hasn't worked for 30 years but neither will simply bombing the country back to the stone-age - it will merely further the tensions in the middle east and add another country to the (long) list with grudges against the US.
 
Personally, I'm wondering how long before Russia and the PRC tell NK to step the fuck back. Those two are probably NK's biggest supporters, politically speaking, and it seems they're also getting tired of NK being the region-destabilizing prat it's been for years, now.
 
Simply put, smash tactics will not work against those facilities, they need to be secured by special forces and dismantled - carefully!

...oh no. We irradiate the North Korean countryside instead of allowing them to do it to a city of innocent civilians.

Just call me Tolwyn, I suppose, for wanting to be on 'the winning side'.
 
...oh no. We irradiate the North Korean countryside instead of allowing them to do it to a city of innocent civilians.

Just call me Tolwyn, I suppose, for wanting to be on 'the winning side'.

Well it's not an issue of just irriadiating the North Korean country side. I would imagine you'd have to take into account how much radioactive material would be blown in the air, which direction the winds were blowing and any number of other conditions before you just dropped a bomb on an enrichment facility. I mean for one the Korean Peninsula is fairly small, scattering radioactive materials would be a *bad* idea. Not to mention just North you have China, and Russia. Then across the sea of Japan, there is Japan.

Now granted that's a very wide area, and an attack almost certainly wouldn't irradiate the entire area, it would still be genuinely reckless to just drop a bomb on it and expect it all of your problems to go away.
 
Just build a giant oven and hang a sign over it "Free Kimchi" and that'll be the final solution.
 
I have to disagree pretty strongly here.

This argument completely flies in the face of the Israeli raid on the Iraq Nuclear Reactor. Either that raid worked, Iraq was shut down, and stopped producing weapons of mass Destructions, or about 2 billion people owe Georgey W an apology.

I have not seen convincing evidence that the Israeli raid actually stopped Iraq's nuclear program. Slowed it perhaps, but you can always rebuild something you built once. Yet their nuclear program was gone by the time we invaded. So...it would seem that diplomacy (or at least, a nasty embargo) DID remove a nuclear threat...or at least contributed.

However, what the Israeli air strike did do was further engender ill will and fear towards Israel, and by extension the U.S., and make further diplomacy efforts on our part more difficult, give more support to organizations like Hamas, and possibly goad countries like Iran into more saber rattling than they otherwise would have.

The less that should be learned from this is that a concise strike (Technoglically superior aircraft) against a specific Target (North Korean Nuclear Enrichment Plant) can be succesful at stopping the development of Nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Delaying, certainly. Stopping, no. And invoking unfortunate side effects: you (1) point out to the adversary what the holes in their air defense network are so that they're better prepared if you go to war for real, (2) reveal to them exactly how good your intelligence on them and their facilities is, potentially endangering intelligence assets and encouraging them to tighten up on leaks, so that they're better at hiding future efforts from you (it's the old "if there's a wasp in the room, I'd rather know where it is" argument), and (3) unify their people, who might otherwise pressure the government to back off or become dismantled, behind the corrupt, paranoid government (imagine if, right before East Germany or Poland had thrown off the yoke of communist rule, we'd executed a tactical strike against a critical target...all of a sudden, the failing communist governments would have gained popular support and increased legitimacy).

Where as diplomatic efforts to reduce the military strength of an opposing falling apart quasi-terrorist communist extremist state are 0 for 468174968713498617439687164 tries.

This is flatly not true, and shows, in the best case, a failure to recognize selection bias, and at worst, a weak knowledge of history.

People tend to remember wars or failed attempts far more than they remember successful diplomatic attempts at encouraging peace or disarmament, simply because in the successful attempts, nothing happens and hence nothing more than a one minute blurb on the news mentions it.

Here's a few recent examples of disarmament/conflict avoidance that have been accomplished through diplomacy:

-South Africa (among other nations) voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons program after successfully detonating nuclear warheads, due to international pressure.
-Libya has recently abandoned its terrorist ways and joined the ranks of non-adversary nations, because of diplomatic pressure
-The Palestinian Fatah faction controlling the West Bank has avoided the conflicts that Hamas in Gaza has had, through diplomacy
-Pakistan and India have been avoiding another war for decades, despite horrible tensions, through diplomacy
-Almost all of the former Soviet republics (practically the definition of falling apart quasi-terrorist communist extremist states) gave up their WMD capabilities due to diplomatic pressures, without NATO firing a single cruise missile.

In fact, North Korea seems to be more the exception than the rule if you consider the last sixty years of history or so.


And that does require pulling any forces off the line to engage in battle. In fact, the entire operation could not be conducted by Hellfire Missiles fired from Drones and Tomahawk Strike Missiles, not require a man to do anymore then push a couple of buttons.

And the entire operation to remove Saddam was accomplished in a month. But the repercussions of that operation are still with us today. If you push a couple of buttons, and take out a North Korean enrichment plant from a base, say, just south of the DMZ, maybe North Korea decides that to prevent future such strikes they march their army through the DMZ and capture those base sites. Maybe they decide to try to knock down some of our satellites. Maybe they use it as a pretext to launch a full scale war against South Korea, since crazy failing goverments know that nothing unifies a suffering people behind them like a good war. Not probably, but not inconcievable. Especially if they are aware (as I'm sure that are) that the U.S.'s military resources ARE stretched thin right now, and the American people are likely reluctant to support more war.

No, the reason you want dialog is because you're ignorant of Human History, which has demonstrated time and time again that diplomatic arrangements have unilaterally failed to accomplish the stated objective of military disarmament. The only case was there is an exception to these rules is with the START Treaty's and talks, and the only reason THOSE are successful is because they've changed...exactly nothing. When you have enough power to blow the world away one or two million times over, what does it matter if you want to get rid of a few out dated launch systems that are just eating up your cash reserves to maintain anyway?

The only time Diplomacy has won military concessions has been when both sides have nothing to lose.

Not sure where to begin with this one. I already mentioned quite a few times in recent human history where diplomacy lead to disarmament. Also, I would disagree with your characterization of the disarmament treaties. Our stockpile today is an order of magnitude smaller than it was 25 years ago--way more than getting rid of a few outdated launch systems. Russia has seen a corresponding reduction. In fact, for all his faults, George W. has reduced the size of our stockpile more than any other president.

I would also argue that Diplomacy has won military concessions when both sides have EVERYTHING to lose--this is the funadmental principal of deterrence which has kept us out of a third world war for over sixty years despite historic mistrust, arms buildup, and tensions. Classic example--the Cuban missile crisis (just imagine what might have happened if someone had followed your advice and tried to disarm Cuba with a tactical strike!). Both sides had a lot to lose, so both stood down their militaries and Cuba was disarmed.

Either because the amount of reduce able weapons was insignificant (START Treatys) or they intended to simply start back up again (Treaty of Versailles, North Korean Agreement).

Again, you list only countries that did start back up again because when someone starts up again, it makes the news. Countries throughout history that disarmed and didn't start back up again:
-Switzerland (the Swiss used to be the most feared army in Europe)
-Sweden (the Swedes dominated northern Europe for hundreds of years)
-South Africa
-Ukraine
-Kazakstan
-Belarus
-Post WWII Japan

And the list goes on.
 
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