FAO: Europe and the rest of the world.

Discussion in 'Off-topic Zone' started by -danr-, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. -danr-

    -danr- Rear Admiral

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    So...5.30am here and it's pretty much settled that we're leaving the EU.

    What do you all make of it? Are we crazy? Are you jealous?
     
  2. Pedro

    Pedro Vice Admiral

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    We're crazy, and how. It's not a move based on reasoning, just on looking for scapegoats for our problems.

    But we're in good company, with Trump as a presidential candidate the US seems to be just as nuts. Still we'll probably elect Boris Johnson just to one up them. Then we can all have a crazy idiot with funny hair.
     
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  3. David Wade

    David Wade 2nd Lieutenant

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    Yeah but now you have chance to get of the economic collapse that is coming
     
  4. Quarto

    Quarto Unknown Enemy

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    I am jealous.

    Honestly, before the referendum, I couldn't make up my mind which result I would prefer. The mean-spirited Polish-historical part of me really wanted the British to stay under Angela Merkel's heel, so that maybe you'd finally understand that leaving your allies to face fifty years of totalitarian occupation wasn't a nice thing to do ;). But the generous part of me prevailed - you've got a chance to get out, good for you. If you stayed, ten years down the track you probably wouldn't have another opportunity - but thanks to you, we might.

    As Dan Hannan, one of the leave campaigners (now happily facing unemployment as an MEP) said, being in favour of football doesn't mean you have to be in favour of FIFA. It is very much the same with the EU. European integration is a fantastic thing. The EU is a horrid bureaucratic mess.

    Oh, and don't worry too much. Yes, there will be short term negatives. Lots of them, in fact. Particularly if the "let's make the Brits pay!" faction wins out in the EU - the eurocrats may well yet persuade a lot of people who voted t remain to wish they could go back and vote leave, but the way they will achieve this is by making life miserable for all British people. So, yes, there will be pain. But in a few months, things will start settling down - people will realise that the sun still rises, that all this talk about the collapse of Western civilisation (yes, somebody actually said that) was just stupid. A few years down the track, you'll start reaping the benefits. Being able to restore traditional links with countries like India and Australia, you know, markets that are actually growing as opposed to the ageing and shrinking EU - will be a huge thing.

    There is one major and unpleasant fly in the ointment, though. It really looks like Scotland's gone - and the only reason Northern Ireland will wind up staying is because they're too conflicted to seriously contemplate joining Ireland. This, by the way, will be another opportunity to watch what a bunch of duplicitous assholes the EU leadership are. During the Scottish referendum, they kept on bleating to the Scots that if they declare independence, they won't automatically get into the EU, they'll have to go to the back of the queue, and all that jazz. Now, just you watch: the moment Scotland declares they're launching another referendum, you'll see those exact same people that previously tried to bully the Scots into staying as part of the UK, now encouraging them to go independent. Previously, Scotland couldn't automatically get into the EU, now you'll find out that actually, if Scotland just breaks away before the UK invokes Article 50, they can just take UK's place at the table as a successor state or some such nonsense.

    But of course, even Scotland leaving comes with benefits: Labour would basically be screwed out of power for a decade or more. And while the Conservatives aren't exactly an ideal party - far from it - at least they're not outright socialists.

    Just for the record, I think that's one reason why the remain campaign failed - because they kept on repeating that remain is the reasonable option while leaving is emotional. Far from it. I've seen plenty of intelligent and cogent arguments in favour of leave. Heck, Dan Hannan, whom I mentioned above, wrote a whole book filled with arguments - perhaps you should check it out, as it may make you feel better about the outcome of the vote.

    I think it was the remain campaign that was based on emotions rather than reasoning. Certainly, in spite of all the anti-immigrant antics from Nigel Farage (which I do find kind of pathetic, given that the Polish, who are most often singled out, are a net contributor to the UK ), I don't think the leave campaign at any rate stooped to the kind of senseless emotional arguments that the remain side used - I'm thinking here in particular of the frequently repeated "we Brits are not quitters" appeals of the last few days. That was *pure* reason, right? :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  5. Pedro

    Pedro Vice Admiral

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    No, basically
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  6. gr1mre4per

    gr1mre4per Rear Admiral

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    Dispite the fact he's a fuzzy haired buffoon, Boris is very intelligent and plays on his image. He could be an interesting 'break from the norm' as PM. Prime minister's questions could become fun to watch with his bumbling .

    From my point of view I think David Cameron has done a good job making tough decisions that got this country back on track. It's a shame he's fallen from grace this way.

    Remaining in the EU was the safe option and in the short term leaving will hurt, but long term it could pay dividends. It's a scary but also exciting time I think. Guess we have to ride the rapids and build ourselves a good future.
     
  7. -danr-

    -danr- Rear Admiral

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    :D You're all heart.

    Great post. Although I'd argue Labour aren't exactly outright socialists even now under the dinosaur 70s socialist throwback Corbyn - who, incidentally, vocally opposed the EEC in decades gone by. When he was appointed leader, there was a minor revolt within the party because everybody knows their most succesful time in recent years was under Blair when they swung a touch to the right and fought the Conservatives for the right of center ground; and won repeatedly, and by appointing old man Trotsky they were basically just kneejerking back to type.

    Now, don't hate me - because I was absolutely torn in two about this but I went with leave. I chose the hard option, like a glutton for punishment. Economically, for me, staying was the safe bet - staying for me would have been the selfish option, but I'm trying to see past that, and long term all I can see is EU statehood - so I'm playing the long game if you will; I voted leave possibly for similar reasons a lot of Scots went for independence; sovereignty, I believe in local rule.

    I can't believe being pro EU has become such a left wing thing, I can't get my head around socialists who want centralised power far, far away. Just why?

    ...and despite having voted leave yesterday, I'm panicking now.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
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  8. -danr-

    -danr- Rear Admiral

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    Yeah, shielding ourselves from further Eurozone meltdown is a plus - although in the short term, we'll be having plenty of meltdowns of our own.
     
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  9. Dyret

    Dyret Super Carrot!

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    You chose your own future, I'm happy for you. I'm not bright enough to know if it's the best possible outcome in the long run, but given the retarded amount of 'dey left coss dey all reisist' going on on the internets I have to assume no one else is either.
     
  10. Oggy

    Oggy Rear Admiral

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    it is what it is, I feel like there's more risk attached to brexit but its what enough of the people wanted so that's that.
    my prediction is a lot of short term economic & social pain for us, then hopefully it'll start to stabilise. Whether we come out diminished or stronger I don't know, there are too many unknowns. All I know is having had a rough ride in construction since 2008 (and improving circumstances since 2014) I am hoping we don't get a deep recession again.
     
  11. Quarto

    Quarto Unknown Enemy

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    This last bit is extremely important. Local rule, by definition, is something that works from the ground up. It is very difficult (though not impossible, I dearly hope) to build local rule from the top down. Great Britain has something that most EU states have lost somewhere along the way (a certain little corporal - not the German one - had something to do with that): namely, you have a continuity of customary law from the Middle Ages. This is something that you sometimes might not appreciate as important, and perhaps sometimes you even consider it a little embarrassing, like when people point out to you obsolete but still valid laws that forbid wearing armour in parliament, or the requirement to practice archery every Sunday, and the like. Or the fact that every new law is actually inscribed on parchment, i.e. goat hide. But these are all quaint little symbols of something very ancient, that by its very definition is impossible to come by, but dead easy to lose.

    That something, is a tradition of local autonomy. It's an outgrowth of feudalism - which, contrary to what you are taught in schools, was a fundamentally democratic system, except that it understood democracy in a hierarchical way. This also meant that different places could conceivably have different laws and traditions. And it is something that is very difficult to reconcile with constitutional law, which is what most of Europe has, and which is precisely what the EU would like to impose as a standard for everyone (not because they're evil - sure, they are, but that's beside the point - but simply because they're bureaucrats, and they can't stand the idea of local difference; they want everything the same everywhere). In short, don't let them do to you what history has done to us, because believe me, it's very hard to undo. You can lose localised customary law and replace it with a centralised constitutional law any time you want - but, for good or for bad, going back is rarely an option.

    But yes, to re-iterate, you have a miserable few days and weeks ahead of you. Don't let that get you down. In all aspects of life, the decisions that are the most beneficial in the long-term involve painful sacrifices in the short-term. It's not a hard-and-fast rule, and certainly you can also have short-term pain without long-term benefits (like if you step in front of a bus, for instance :D), but the reverse is rarely true - long-term benefits are rarely to be had without short-term sacrifice.

    Finally: don't feel embarrassed by your choice just because Trump is praising you :D.
     
  12. Pedro

    Pedro Vice Admiral

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    It's become a left wing issue because frankly the EU has been the north, and scotlands knight in shining armor. As I said in my original post (before giving up because the inaccuracies were making me too angry for a Friday night) I remember what Liverpool was, I remember what Cardiff was.

    I know many a scot who would disagree with you about their supposed reasons for breaking away - it's not about independence, it's about feeling neglected by our own government. If you'll notice Scotland strongly voted to remain, and the reason is they have more faith that the EU will take care of them, as they have done. Were it about independence they'd be grasping at every opportunity to reduce the scope of external influence.
    One scott in my facebook just posted this, silly as it is nothing I've seen thus far has summed up Scotlands reaction to Brexit quite so well http://evildreye.com/comic/time-to-go/

    The EU offered some protection against unfair distribution of wealth. It's far easier for local rule to be corrupted, and in the case of the UK it has been.
    Stable democratic oversight that isn't subject to wild and dangerous swings of policy every time votes swing a few more places to the left or the right is a good thing, frankly the drastic changes that the UK has made in the past years have been damaging enough. Unlike the US when a party in the UK is elected by a slim majority there is very little holding them back from making sweeping and extreme changes.
    This rather sums up how little thought people voting leave gave to their votes http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...erwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

    I don't see any potential long term benefits, but as an expat at least my salary is looking a lot better than it did 24 hours ago.

    Anyway it's done now, and it's not going to effect me directly as I can't imagine returning to the UK - but I'd be interested in seeing when people anticipate these supposed long term benefits, maybe we can all return to this thread after that number of years and see who was right.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  13. Mekt-Hakkikt

    Mekt-Hakkikt Mpanty's bane

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    I was honestly surprised by the result and I am saddened by it and I can't really grasp the reasons for the exit besides a vague feeling of being "unfree". But on the other hand, kudos for taking the courageous vote and not the easy, well let's remain, no change is better. Now, nobody knows what will happen. Maybe it will be terrible, maybe it will be good or maybe - worst of all -maybe nothing will change.

    At least something exciting is happening without being a war.
     
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  14. Pedro

    Pedro Vice Admiral

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    Cut
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2016
  15. Quarto

    Quarto Unknown Enemy

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    Alex... why exactly did you post that quote? There's certainly no arguments in there - it's all just emotions. The emotions are absolutely understandable - this is a huge, huge deal, and obviously there's huge emotions involved. Absolutely. But emotions are not arguments - at least, I dearly hope that you're not swayed either way by the fact that some mental case is scared about fascists coming after him. It's just not an argument, there's no reason in it.

    Regarding the EU, I will say just a few more things, and then I'll shut up, because I do think you are ultimately right in what you said earlier - it's too early to really be having this discussion. There is too much emotion involved, which makes it pretty hard to have a calm discussion about advantages and disadvantages. But, let me point out that if the only consideration regarding the EU were the regional development programmes that you correctly identify as greatly benefitting Scotland, then I wouldn't have a single negative thing to say about the EU. But there's so many other issues involved, and to reduce the discussion to just that one aspect where the EU is seen as good because it gave the Scots money... it just doesn't work that way.

    I also will not try to argue that British politics is all good. Heck, living in Australia, I can see clearly that all throughout the British Empire, the establishment is a pretty horrid and slimy thing. Of the British parties that currently exist, the conservatives are certainly closet to my ideological position, but there's a huge amount of slimy opportunism in their party, and this combined with entrenched interests means that they're mainly "conservative" in the sense of conserving the interests of a particular group of people, as opposed to trying to conserve tradition, common sense, and all these other things that are being jettisoned wholesale today. Yes, I do think they're still better than Labour or (especially) the Lib Dems, but I have no illusions. In spite of all this, at least they are held responsible by the voters. You mentioned the benefits of stable democratic oversight - there is no such thing in the EU. For example, the two Polish representatives in the EU power structures - of whom, you will note, one is Donald Tusk, the head of the European Council, the closest we have to an EU president - are among the most corrupt scumbags in Polish politics, who seized the opportunity to be elected to the commission in order to flee Poland in the middle of a massive scandal that heavily implicated them in all manner of nasty things. You will note that the rest of the EU had no qualms about accepting these politicians, in spite of their evident corruption - because corruption is not a problem in the EU. What is important is that the politicians belong to the correct ideological crowd, and that they will be obedient to the interests of the big powers - or, to be more blunt, they will be obedient to Germany, which is particularly visible with Tusk, whose connections to Angela Merkel go far beyond what is acceptable in a democracy. I don't think that's quite what you have in mind when you talk about stable democratic oversight, because there's really no democracy to be had in the EU. These things look good at first glance, but the fine print is pretty disturbing. Essentially, the EU leadership is neither democratic, nor meritocratic - very often, it is demeritocratic, it is a leadership composed of mediocre politicians who were dumped in Brussels after running into trouble at home. The fact that you have corrupt scumbags like Tusk running the show, with most people not even being aware of any scandal (after all, I wouldn't know anything about his past either, if I didn't speak Polish), is a very strong indicator of what the EU is all about.

    I would also like to point out that in the vote, it wasn't only the present state of the EU that was a consideration, but also its future - many people vehemently objected to the plans the EU leadership expressed for the future of the organisation. Consider also, that statistically, the older a British voter was, the more likely they were to vote leave. Today, this is being presented as some horrible injury perpetrated on young people, but I see it differently. Let's face it, young people, even 30-somethings like you and me, are self-centred, while 20-somethings are not only self-centred, but usually just plain ignorant (I won't mention the whining from 16-year-olds supposedly robbed of the right to decide their future - they're children, too immature to make decisions, so robbing them of the right to decide their future is precisely the point). Young and even early middle-age adults (I think we're starting to fit into that latter category, which is kind of disturbing) are on the make, and when voting, their first consideration is "what's in it for me", and usually "what's in it for me in the short term". Older people are in a far better position to make a rational decision, not only because they have the benefits of experience, but also because they are no longer constrained by self-interest so much. Many of the people who voted to leave won't even live long enough to leave, and they knew it very well - they were making what they felt was the best choice for their children and grandchildren. Incidentally: among the people who actually consciously recall life in the pre-EU Britain, an utterly overwhelming majority voted to leave. That means something. It means a lot.

    Ok, "a few more things" have turned into a couple of pretty long paragraphs, so I will leave it at that. My message, at its simplest: whoever is right in the debate (I do think it's "leave", but I don't claim certainty), there are most definitely both advantages and disadvantages to being in the EU, and I am pretty convinced that most people voted to leave not because of emotions, but because of reasoned arguments. You would do well to step out of your comfort zone and familiarise yourself with the arguments of the other side. this is a good place to start, and it will cost you a whole $2.5. Go for it - you have nothing to lose in learning the other side's arguments!
     
  16. Pedro

    Pedro Vice Admiral

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    Why did I post it? For the same reason I posted the Scottish cartoon - to represent that the UK is not of a single mind backing a single ideal - it has a split right down the middle.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2016
  17. Mace

    Mace Vice Admiral

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    "Leaving the EU" would not be of that much consequence for the UK. They were isolated anyway, and have had a pretty strong localized economy and mosts brits I have known, have always done a lot of local stuff... Local products, local pricing. Also, prices really differ when you cross the channel. I think your local economy will get a boost, and your international trade will suffer some loss, but pick back up in the long run. The UK will be fine, and those people screaming in the streets likely had mental problems in the first place.

    When we had a referndum recently, our government were not very happy with the result, and have chosen to ignore it(There was also a negative vote on the EU constitution referanda in 2001, and three months later our government shoved it down our throats anyway. (A common argument is that not enough people showed, or that they were not sure what they were voting on... and then there is the most stupid argument I ever heard, that "the opinion of the people who did not vote should also count"(as said by our prime mister, after the Ukraine referenda in May, when he chose the ignore the results)

    The average joe in the street, does not know the difference between The EU, the eurozone, the Shengen agreement and the songfestival. This is an argument used a lot in the press to say that those who are for leaving the EU are typically uneducated rightwinged xenophobes, and are afraid that refugees will "take their jobs(Durka Dur!)".

    The Netherlands(and probably Belgium), which primary economics come from international trade, will follow the course of Germany and France. I'd like to see it happen that we will go back to the ancient EEG(European Economic Community) formed in the late 50's, and the UK joining them as well.
     
  18. Pedro

    Pedro Vice Admiral

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    Since most of the press is right wing I very much doubt they did, but they are standing by the claim such voters were uneducated.

    "According the polls, university graduates were the most likely people to want to remain in the EU - while those with a GCSE or equivalent as their highest qualification were more likely to back Brexit.

    This was a pattern that was reflected in the results.

    Only three of 35 areas where more than half of residents had a degree voted to leave - South Bucks, West Devon, and Malvern Hills in the West Midlands."
     
  19. wcnut

    wcnut Rear Admiral

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    We here in US don't really function under a true democracy (Common misconception even among Americans) . We are a functioning republic. It's why we have to deal with the electoral college when electing the president every 4 years. Apparently the founding fathers didn't actually trust the masses not to do something utterly silly because they managed to get a 51% majority . Heck even in our congress to achieve anything important , like declare war, you need a 2/3 majority...

    Evidently not only did the British people vote against the E.U. but they voted against the U.K as well..even after all that trouble trying to keep Scotland in the fold 2 years ago. You think that alone would have swayed some minds, even if they weren't fond of Europe.


    @Mace I have to disagree. It's going to be quite a while before some form of normalcy is established. England is far from self-sufficient. It utterly depends on trade, and now they have offended their biggest trading partner. Renegotiating completely EVERYTHING is going to take a very long time. Europe in turn is probably not going to give them any great deals (Being the scorned lovers that they are). On top of that lenders aren't going to look too favorably at England. Before they were a powerful nation, backed by a fairly united continent. Now it's just them, and they are rather small when it comes to it (And could very well be smaller if Scotland, and Norther Ireland leave). There are going to be some rough times ahead.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2016
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  20. Quarto

    Quarto Unknown Enemy

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    I said I would shut up, but... if anybody does want to find out more about the "leave" side's arguments, but doesn't have the time to read the book I linked to earlier, I'm in the middle of watching Brexit: The Movie, and I think it's definitely worth seeing. Needless to say, it is someone making an argument, and like any argument, it's intended to be persuasive, not balanced - but given the prevailing opinion about "leave" being irrational, it really is worthwhile to listen to the arguments they made.
     

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