To be fair to him, Japan's best shot was Pearl Harbour. Japan at its absolute peak could only do 10% of the US' total production capabilities, and their peak was short-lived.
Yeah, we all like the ~~~~~~~~~ and all, but Japan simply never had a chance against the US.
Argh. You're treating this like some damned idiotic Space-Battles.com debate, where victory or defeat depends on which ship has more turrets than the other.
It's not about bloody stats. You don't look at Japan's production capabilities vs. America's production capabilities and decide that whoever has more wins. That's just plain wrong - the real world doesn't work that way.
I'm not gonna get into the details of this - it's a waste of time, discussing all the various potential what-ifs. What it comes down to is this - you are sitting here, sixty years after the fact, talking about how inevitable Japan's defeat was. Meanwhile, the people who were there sixty years ago were quite convinced that Japan could indeed win. So, how do you figure that would turn out? You
might know that, within a few months of Midway, America would be churning out cheap, mass-produced CVEs, ramping up production of a new carrier-based fighter superior to the Japanese Zero, etc., etc... but they
didn't know that. The people in command at the time didn't make their decisions based on the kind of all-encompassing hindsight we have today. They barely knew what was going on directly around them (since the enemy was doing his best to mask his own actions), let alone what would happen in six months time. When making their decisions, they had to consider not just what would
happen, but also a dozen other possible scenarios that could unfold.
We just don't know how Midway could have affected things. Maybe it would have screwed over the Japanese Navy, leaving them with a distant, more or less useless outpost constantly crying out for supplies, and not really of any use in advancing further eastwards. But maybe the Americans, stunned by the loss of their carrier force, would have pulled their fleet back to the west coast, leaving most of the Pacific out of range of American subs, and allowing the Japanese to import virtually unlimited amounts of oil and other resources from South-East Asia. Maybe Midway would have spurred the American public into demanding that all war efforts be focussed on the Japanese, and actually would have sped up the outcome of the war in the Pacific (...at the cost of the war in Europe)... and maybe it would have instead caused the American public (which was fairly isolationist at the best of times) to demand that their government stop wasting money on a war for some island in the middle of nowhere. I mean, today, when Hawaii is a state, it might seem inconceivable that America would give it up - but it certainly wasn't out of the question back then.
...This is just a few possibilities that need to be taken into consideration. I'm sure if we spent a few hours researching this, we'd come up with a dozen other possible scenarios to come out of Midway. And this is just
Midway we're talking about - while there's still so much else to think about. In Australia, at the point when the Japanese seemed on the verge of launching an invasion, there was serious talk of abandoning all of North Australia to them - as I understand it, one of the options being considered was to set up a line of defence just north of Brisbane. This may seem impossible for us today, but it certainly didn't look that way back then - it wouldn't have taken much for the Japanese to capture Port Moresby, and even less for them to recover (or simply never lose!) Guadalcanal and move on, perhaps even all the way to New Caledonia. And again, what happens then, with America essentially cut off from Australia, with no bases at all west of Hawaii?
In short, there's just so many factors to consider, so many possibilities, that talking about the Japanese being inevitably defeated is... well, pretty stupid, frankly. I mean, had the Japanese lost the battle of Tsushima fifty years earlier, you'd be telling us now - again, with utter certainty - that they never stood a chance against Imperial Russia, and they were foolish to even try to fight them. After all, the Japanese, barely out of the middle ages, were attacking a nation that literally
could build or buy in the space of two years more ships than Japan had built since the Meiji Restoration...